The Quiet Birth of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund And the UBI Question No One’s Asking (Yet)

On February 3rd 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Treasury and Commerce departments to develop a plan for the United States' first federal sovereign wealth fund (SWF). This move has sparked excitement about America finally joining nations like Norway and Saudi Arabia in building a massive state-owned investment vehicle. But beneath the headlines of "economic security" and "strategic leadership," a provocative question is emerging as my investment thesis (AI, Robotics, Health, Blockchain, and Energy) continues to strengthen and we edge ever closer to the Singularity.  Could this SWF be the stealthy groundwork for a national Universal Basic Income (UBI)?

Official statements emphasize industrial policy, national security, and even quirky ideas like buying TikTok. Yet the structure of these government equity stakes and historical precedents like Alaska's Permanent Fund raise eyebrows. Is this really just about beating China in chips and rare earths, or is Washington quietly assembling a "people's fund" that could one day mail checks to every American?

The Official Story: Industrial Policy on Steroids

The Executive Order tasks officials with creating a fund to "promote fiscal sustainability, lessen the burden of taxes on American families and small businesses, and establish economic security for future generations." Funding sources remain vague with a mix of tariffs, asset monetization, and even repurposing existing agencies like the Development Finance Corporation.  However, the U.S. lacks the budget surpluses or resource royalties that fuel traditional SWFs.

By mid-2025, the administration shifted from grants to direct equity. Key moves include:

• Converting CHIPS Act awards into a ~10% stake in Intel (worth billions, focused on domestic semiconductor fabs).
• A 15% position in rare-earth giant MP Materials.
• Smaller or negotiated stakes in companies like Lithium Americas, Trilogy Metals, and a "golden share" veto in U.S. Steel deals.

These aren't passive investments in a diversified portfolio. They're targeted injections into strategic sectors vulnerable to Chinese dominance. Administration officials frame them as "unconventional" tools for supply-chain security, not broad wealth generation. There's zero mention in White House fact sheets or the EO of citizen dividends, UBI, or Alaska-style payouts.

The Alaska Precedent: When a SWF Becomes "Free Money for Everyone"

Here's where the theory gets legs. Alaska's Permanent Fund, created in 1976, sets aside oil royalties, invests them globally, and distributes annual dividends to residents averaging $1,000 - $2,000 per person recently. It's the closest thing America has to a functioning UBI, funded entirely by a state SWF now worth over $80 billion.

Proponents of a "social wealth fund" or "universal basic dividend" have long cited Alaska as a model for national policy. Imagine scaling it: A federal fund owning chunks of Apple, Nvidia, or critical mineral firms, harvesting dividends and capital gains, then cutting checks to 330 million Americans. In an era of AI-driven job displacement, skyrocketing deficits, and populist demands for "America First" wealth-sharing, it sounds almost... plausible?

Some online theorists point to the SWF's timing amid UBI chatter from tech leaders and even fringe political corners. If tariffs flood revenue or if the fund balloons via savvy investments, why not pivot returns toward direct citizen payments? After all, the EO vaguely nods to benefits for "American families."

Why the UBI Link Doesn't Hold, At Least Not Yet

Pushback is strong, and evidence-based. No official document, speech, or leak ties this SWF to UBI. The investments are hyper-specific bailouts/protections for national-security industries, not a neutral, diversified fund designed for steady payouts. Funding a true national UBI ($1,000/month per adult) would require trillions annually which is orders of magnitude beyond the current billions in play.

Critics (including myself) highlight risks: Government stock-picking invites cronyism, market distortion, and political meddling (e.g., pressuring companies on jobs or pricing). Traditional SWFs thrive on surpluses; America has deficits. 

That said, the door isn't slammed shut. If the fund matures into a Norway-scale behemoth ($1.7+ trillion), future administrations could repurpose returns for dividends. Alaska proved it's possible at the state level; a national version would just need the political will (and Congress).

An Unconventional Fund for Unconventional Times?

As of November 2025, the U.S. SWF looks more like a geopolitical toolbox than a UBI Trojan horse. But in a world where governments increasingly blur lines between state and shareholder, it's fair to ask: What happens if these stakes pay off big? Will the profits fortify Pentagon budgets... or end up in Americans' bank accounts?

I’ve never been a fan of classic UBI. The old versions of handing out cash because “jobs are scarce” or “inequality is bad” always struck me as a Band-Aid that treats symptoms while subsidizing idleness in a world where human work still had real scarcity value. But AI and robotics are changing the equation. When companies (and their shareholders) capture almost all the gains from machines that never sleep, never unionize, and never need health insurance, yet millions of former workers are left with no role and no income, "something must be done” stops being a slogan and becomes an economic necessity. If capital itself is becoming the new labor force, then letting the public own a slice of that capital through a sovereign fund that actually pays dividends might be the least bad way to keep the system from fracturing. I’m still skeptical of free money for free money’s sake, but free money as a return on collectively owned assets in an age of robot-driven abundance? That’s a conversation I’m willing to start debating. 

One thing's certain: This is no ordinary investment fund. Whether it evolves into a shield against China, a slush fund for "great national endeavors," or, in a wild twist, the backbone of an American Permanent Fund Dividend, it's worth watching closely.

The seeds of something revolutionary might be planted, even if no one's admitting it yet.