Mortgage Collapse Simulator

No. It is a scenario model. You choose the starting conditions and the shape of the shock, and it shows how defaults, prices and credit availability could interact over 20 quarters. The baselines are illustrative, not sourced forecasts, so use it to understand the feedback loops rather than to predict a date or a number.

They control how the stress arrives, not how big it is. Gradual eases in over about three years and then plateaus. Shock applies the full impact in the first quarter and then recovers slowly, similar to 2008. Cascading starts slowly and then accelerates as each problem feeds the next.

When owners default, forced sales add supply and push prices down. Lower prices leave more owners with little or no equity, so a job loss is more likely to end in default instead of a normal sale. Lenders then tighten standards, which removes buyers and pushes prices lower again.

Mortgages are paid from wages. If AI tools reduce demand for some well-paid office roles faster than people can move into new work, household income falls in exactly the group that holds large mortgages. The model turns that income shock into payment stress and follows it through the housing market.

Yes. Save keeps your scenario in this browser on this device, with no account. Copy link puts your inputs in the web address so you can open the same scenario elsewhere, and Export CSV downloads the quarter-by-quarter results.